Round 4

Miami Grand Prix 2026: what worked in F1 Fantasy

The race is done — here it is against what we projected beforehand. Mean error at this round: 18.3 points per asset. The biggest thing we underrated was MCL (+61.8); the biggest overrate was AUD (−39.4).

Drivers

Asset	Price	Actual	Projected	Miss
NOR L. Norris	—	54	16.5	+37.5
VER M. Verstappen	—	52	19.9	+32.1
ANT K. Antonelli	—	42	53.4	−11.4
RUS G. Russell	—	42	39.8	+2.2
PIA O. Piastri	—	41	18.2	+22.8
LEC C. Leclerc	—	27	34.0	−7.0
ALB A. Albon	—	20	0.0	+20.0
ALO F. Alonso	—	20	-1.2	+21.2
HAM L. Hamilton	—	20	30.2	−10.2
PER S. Perez	—	19	7.9	+11.1
SAI C. Sainz	—	19	9.1	+9.9
STR L. Stroll	—	17	-3.4	+20.4
OCO E. Ocon	—	14	8.3	+5.7
COL F. Colapinto	—	13	4.6	+8.4
BOR G. Bortoleto	—	7	1.9	+5.1
BEA O. Bearman	—	6	16.2	−10.2
BOT V. Bottas	—	4	1.3	+2.7
LIN A. Lindblad	—	-4	2.6	−6.6
GAS P. Gasly	—	-8	13.1	−21.1
LAW L. Lawson	—	-12	14.9	−26.9
HAD I. Hadjar	—	-16	4.7	−20.7
HUL N. Hulkenberg	—	-29	7.0	−36.0

Constructors

Asset	Price	Actual	Projected	Miss
MCL McLaren	—	110	48.2	+61.8
MER Mercedes	—	104	97.3	+6.7

This projection was reconstructed after the race: the model was re-run on data available before the round only (walk-forward). It does not count towards the pre-lock accuracy figure. Otherwise the review would show something other than what you could actually act on before the deadline. How we measure it →