GridIQ · 2026 season · after round R14
How far off the GridIQ projection is
Every figure below can be checked: the projection we recorded against the points the game awarded. Each round is stamped with when its projection was recorded — before the deadline or after the race. The whole dataset is available as CSV and JSON.
By round
Mean absolute error for drivers and constructors. The headline figure above counts only rounds marked “frozen before lock”.
| Round | Projection recorded | Error · drivers | Error · teams | Top-3 | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R9 British Grand Prix | 03/07, 18:07 · 17 h before lock | 11,9 | 17,1 | 1 / 3 | frozen before lock |
| R14 Spanish Grand Prix | 07/09, 18:02 · 5 d before lock | 7,9 |
By driver
Error is the mean absolute miss per round. Bias carries the sign: “+” means we underrated the driver, “−” overrated. The frozen columns count only rounds whose projection was frozen before lock.
| Asset | Error · all | Bias | Error · frozen | Bias | Rounds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALO F. Alonso | 4,3 | +4,3 | 4,3 | +4,3 | 2 · 2 |
| HUL N. Hulkenberg | 4,4 | −4,4 | 4,4 |
By constructor
The same metric for teams. Team error runs higher by construction: two cars’ points add up.
What already shows: the favourites are where we miss most. That is the content of this page, not a reason to hide it.
The whole dataset
round, code, type, name, x_pts, actual, error, forecast_recorded_at, lock_at, provenanceLicensed CC BY 4.0 · schema.org Dataset markup · updated after every roundHow it is computed: actual minus projected for every asset, the absolute value averaged per round and per asset. The headline counts only rounds whose projection sat in the database before the game deadline. The P10–P90 interval width is not published until there is a sample the model never saw during calibration. What walk-forward means, and why the headline is an error rather than a hit rate →